Sarahiously Speaking

Fredericksburg City:

• 52 days on market – this is 144 days less than in March 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 86.51% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 11.36 months of inventory on the market
• 14 homes sold in March 2009 – this is 1 more than in March 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000 and under. 
• The average sold price was $235,850, compared to $265,100 in March 2008

Orange County

• 137 days on market – this is 30 days less than in March 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 82.15% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.56 months of inventory on the market
• 25 homes sold in March 2009 – this is 5 more than in March 2008
• The most popular price range was $140,000-159,999
• The average sold price was $169,908, compared to $255,868 in March 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 123 days on market – this is 8 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 86.55% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 6.85 months inventory on the market
• 151 homes sold in March 2009 – this is 22 more than in March 2008 
• The most popular price range was $140,000-$159,999
• The average sold price was $211,146, compared to $263,469 in March 2008 

Stafford County

• 111 days on market – this is 34 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 89.51% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 6.66 months inventory on the market
• 138 homes sold in March 2009 - this is 55 more than in March 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $230,573, compared to $318,644 in March 2008 

Prince William County

• 102 days on market – this is 32 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.43% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 4.11 months inventory on the market
• 750 homes sold in March 2009 - this is 248 more than in March 2008
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $210,060, compared to $299,586 in March 2008

The most common asked question in the last month has been, “So, when’s the market gonna turn around?” My answer is usually the same.  “The market will turn around when consumer confidence is up, employment numbers are up, the world’s confidence in the U.S.’s economy is up, when banks have either restructured or short sold the majority of their bad loans, when consumers stop thinking they can get something for nothing, and when we all finally take responsibility for each of our roles in the housing market collapse.  So, about 3-4 more years.” 

These are alot of variables that need to fall into place before we start to see a huge improvement in the housing market.  We are making strides toward stabalization in this area.  Many banks involved in the predatory lending market have now streamlined their short sale process; making it easier to either restructure a predatory loan product or sell the house at a loss.  The easier it is to sell a home and buy a home, the more confident a consumer will be to enter this market.  We are also seeing a decrease in the number of days homes are staying on the market.  I chalk this up to marketability and price.  If the house is in good condition and priced well, it won’t be on the market long.  Now, I’m not saying to price a home under market value, but to realize what market value is.  We are holding steady at the sales price to list price ratio, averaging in the mid-80% range.  And, the number of homes we are selling every month continues to rise across the board. 

The larger part of the equation is convincing consumers that not everyone deserves to own their own home.  I know!  This is blasphemy!  The American Dream is to be a homeowner.  But, nowhere in the American Dream does it say that everyone deserves to a homeowner, hence the dream.  I get calls every week from consumers who are still looking for a “great deal.”  They have caviar dreams, but a Happy Meal budget.  If there is one lesson we can learn from this market it is that we need to purchase homes for our needs, not our wants.  It is important that consumers are realistic about the market and what they can afford.  It is equally important for REALTORS to advise their clients on the market and help set realistic expectations within the limits of the client’s financial situation and current market availability. 

When’s the market gonna turn around?  When we finally learn from our mistakes and get back to old fashion values of working for the American Dream, not just taking it for granted.

(In my attempt to draw more consumers to downtown restaurants and attractions I’ve decided to mention, and critique, some of my favorite places to go.  Capital Ale House is first up!)

My husband has been begging me to go with him to Dollar Burger Night at Capital Ale House for several weeks and we finally had an opportunity to go this past Monday.  Of course, when a restaurant offers food for a dollar you can expect a crowd.  We were not disappointed.  We got there at 6pm and were told it would be a 45 minute wait.  The hostess was less than hospitable, but I will let it slide because the wait staff and bartenders are usually very friendly.  After 15 minutes of waiting, two seats opened up at the bar and we grabbed them.  There are 3 burgers that are $1 and the other burgers are $2.  If you want cheese added it is an extra 50 cents.  Still, not a bad deal.  I ordered the Ale House Burger (with cheese) and my husband ordered the Smokehouse Burger.   You can add on fries as a side item or an appetizer.  The side item is cheaper, but may not be enough fries for two people.  We ordered the appetizer and there were enough fries for 4 people.  You can not get your burger made to order on Dollar Burger Night.  The burgers were delivered to our seats within 15 minutes of ordering and were cooked medium well.  They were actually quite juicy, however, a little bland.  But for $1.50, it was a good burger.  Once we added the cheese, fries, and beers to our order we spent $40 at Dollar Burger Night, but it was a good meal and would have been a $50 tab on a normal night.  Next time we will know to order a $1 burger (maybe add cheese) and waters and get out of there for under $6! 

Do I recommend Dollar Burger Night?  Yes.  But I highly encourage you to make a reservation and prepare to spend at least $20 a person if you want upgrades! 

Dollar Burger Night:  Every Monday Night

Location:  917 Caroline St. Fredericksburg City

It’s that time of year again, when the Bradford Pear Tree blooms for the first time and begins taunting me.  Sure, the white flowers look beautiful, like snow blanketing the tree tops with the bonus of warm weather and nosnow to clean-up.  However, there is still clean-up.  These delicate white petals will start to fall and litter Fredericksburg streets with petal waste.  Then the offensive smell will set in and envelop Fredericksburg City around the middle of April.  Have you never smelled a Bradford Pear Tree in Spring?  It is a putrid combination of cat litter box and cheap perfume.  Just hold your breathe and wait for the stinky season to pass.  The stink usually lasts 2-3 weeks.  Now the leaves come in for summer and the Bradford Pear Tree looks full and Fredericksburg streets are once more pleasant to walk down.  But all too soon the season changes to Fall and the red fruit will sprout from the Bradford Pear Tree’s branches.  The “red fruit of death” is worse than cleaning bird poo from your car.  It’s sticky and it stains.  And then we progress to winter and you think the worst the Bradford Pear Tree has to offer is over.  You are wrong.  For the fourth time in a year, the tree dumps it’s parts on the city.  This time in the form of thousands of leaves.  We repeat this dance with the Bradford Pear Tree year after year.  Oh, how I despise this tree! 

(No offense intended to the Bradford Pear Tree lovers of the world).

Are you looking for some ideas of ways to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day in Fredericksburg?  Here are a few places to try:

J. Brian’s – Located at 200 Hanover Street.  Features a special Irish menu on St. Patrick’s Day. Get your fill of corned beef and cabbage while sipping your favorite brew!  Get there early, this place fills up!

Colonial Tavern – Located at 405 Lafayette Blvd.  Always Irish, all the time.  The standard menu features Irish treats and there is always a song to be heard.  A more limited menu will be featured on March 17th, but be sure, it will be delicious! 

The Blarney Stone – Located at 715 Caroline Street.  Becoming an Irish staple in Fredericksburg.  The Blarney Stone features a smoke free restaurant in the front and a smoking section in the back.  Irish fare is what you will be served here, so bring a hearty appetite! 

Capital Ale House – located at 917 Caroline Street.  Offers a 21 and over celebration starting at 5pm.  10 different Irish and Scottish Ales will be on tap.  An Irish menu will be featured and there will be live music. 

Enjoy the St. Patrick’s Day festivities, but remember to celebrate responsibly!

For the second time in 2 weeks, Fredericksburg residents experience a late winter snow.  Although today’s snow is just a dusting, the March 1st snow fall measured up to 9 inches!  It’s hard to believe that spring starts in just 7 days!

Fredericksburg City:

• 156 days on market – this is 19 days less than in February 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 84.24% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 13.08 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 1 less than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $250,000-299,999 and $200,000. 
• The average sold price was $188,775, compared to $307,362 in February 2008

Orange County

• 195 days on market – this is 13 days more than in February 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 85.26% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.65 months of inventory on the market
• 23 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 5 less than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $197,291, compared to $280,107 in February 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 118 days on market – this is 46 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 87.27% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 10.23 months inventory on the market
• 105 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 25 more than in February 2008 
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $222,282, compared to $281,423 in February 2008 

Stafford County

• 120 days on market – this is 30 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 88.63% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.38 months inventory on the market
• 126 homes sold in February 2009 - this is 41 more than in February 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $223,321, compared to $342,113 in February 2008 

Prince William County

• 91 days on market – this is 34 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.97% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.22 months inventory on the market
• 614 homes sold in February 2009 - this is 227 more than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $204,378, compared to $307,392 in February 2008

Yep, it’s true, prices are continuing to fall.  Prices have fallen an average of $94,470 for the areas I mentioned above.  There are several reasons for the decrease in home sale prices.  First, there’s the whole mortgage/ housing collapse crisis this nation is experiencing.  As long as consumer confidence is down and the stock market is volatile, prices will continue to fall.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Second, there was a moratorium on foreclosures over the winter holiday.  This means less foreclosed homes came on the market and there was less inventory to choose from.  Many buyers opted to wait to purchase a home until inventory increases.  Or, they are waiting for the elusive 4.5% interest rates they were “promised.”  Less inventory and less buyers equals less competition and the buyers in the market made low offers because they could.  (However, if the house is in good condition, still expect competing offers, over list price).  The third reason prices keep dropping is it is the winter selling season.  We typically see a decrease in sales price this time of year because sellers get desperate and lower their prices.  These sellers fear the competition that will come on the market by the middle of April.  The added advantage for these sellers is that the buyers who are writing contracts during the winter months are serious about buying a home.  However, these buyers are also more likely to negotiate a contract in their favor. 

I’ve said it once, and I will continue to say it, the key to this market, if you are a seller is PRICE!  Price competitively the first time and you will have a much better chance of selling your home.  The key to this market if you are a buyer is good credit and patience!  If a buyer is in a popular price range, they should expect to be in a competing offer situation several times before they actually get a contract ratified. 

If you would like market statistics specific to your zip code or neighborhood, please feel free to email me.

Fredericksburg City:

• 197 days on market – this is 57 days more than in January 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 81.6% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 9.86 months of inventory on the market
• 14 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 2 more than in January 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000-149,999 and $200,000- 249,999 equally. 
• The average sold price was $225,459, compared to $338,775 in January 2008

Orange County

• 153 days on market – this is 37 days less than in January 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 79.15% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 32.08 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 4 less than in January 2008
• The most popular price range was $140,000-$159,999
• The average sold price was $218, 940, compared to $262,764 in January 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 135 days on market – this is 49 less than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 86.65% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 12.6 months inventory on the market
• 85 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 14 more than in January 2008 
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $237,421, compared to $294,604 in January 2008 

Stafford County

• 144 days on market – this is 14 more than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 85.62% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 10.24 months inventory on the market
• 91 homes sold in January 2009 - this is 34 more than in January 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $254,804, compared to $314,285 in January 2008 

Prince William County

• 103 days on market – this is 32 less than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.23% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.17 months inventory on the market
• 647 homes sold in January 2009 - this is 335 more than in January 2008!
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $210,255, compared to $318,859 in January 2008

January is typically a pretty slow month for several reasons.  First, consumers are still getting over the holiday spending spree.  Second, inventory is usually lower because most traditional sellers don’t want to market their homes during the holidays.  The weather also plays a factor in the productivity for the month.  But this January had three factors we haven’t seen in a while.  The election of President Barack Obama has helped fuel consumer confidence and the real estate market.  This confidence has flowed over to the lending industry and created lower interest rates and the availability of money to lend.  The third factor is one of supply and demand.  In November, at least two large lending institutions put a moratorium on foreclosures during the holidays.  This created a decrease in available homes for prospective purchasers and an increase in demand for homes in good condition that were available for quick delivery.  All of these factors created a perfect storm for a productive January market.

Now, there are always nuances to any real estate market.  Fredericksburg City is always a tough market to read.  Unless you consistently work or do real estate business in Fred City, the numbers look gloomy.  However, the inventory in the City has been very low recently and what is available may not meet the needs of today’s home buyer.  I am seeing more investment sales than owner occupied sales within the city limits.  The good news is that with slow down in the overall pace in Fred City, there are still only 9.86 months inventory on the market.  This is a much better number than what we have been looking at in recent months. 

Prince William County is consistently racking up huge numbers in all columns except price.  However, Prince William County has an abnormally high rate of foreclosures and short sales.  Yes, this is most likely due to abnormally high incidences of predatory lending in that county.  But don’t let the numbers fool you.  Prince William County real estate is extremely competitive.  There may be an abundance of listings, but not all of them are move-in ready.  Buyers looking in Prince William need to be ready to compete with multiple offers and think about making offers higher than list price.  You also better be ready to move fast if you like a house.  The good ones go quickly.

It’s time to get your frozen custard on!  Carl’s is open for the season starting today!  What better gift could you give your Valentine than a frozen treat from Fredericksburg’s favorite dessert stop!  Let’s stimulate the economy and get some sundaes!  WhooHoo!

“D-Day” is around the corner for 4 college students living in a rental home in Fredericksburg City.  One student must vacate the home by January 29, 2009 in order to adhere to the City’s “excessive residential occupancy” ordinance.  The ordinance is in place to help prevent excessive noise, cars, and other effects to a neighborhood of too many people living in one house.  This case is the first that Fredericksburg City has been able to take to court.  This case raises some interesting questions for me. 

1.  Does the ordinance unfairly target college students and/or young professionals?  Let’s face it, the cost of living is high in Fredericksburg City and the surrounding areas, even in this volatile real estate market.  A one-bedroom home rents for $600-$975.   A two-bedroom rents for $625-$1550.  A three-bedroom home rents for $850-$1650.  And a four-bedroom home rents for $1200-$2100.  Prices vary depending on the area of the City the home is located in.  (Information found in MRIS and are current Active Listing prices).  The closer to the downtown area and University you want to live, the more expensive the rent.  When I first moved to this City in 2004 I quickly learned that I would have to have at least one roommate and sell my blood in order to make a monthly rent payment.  Luckily, I was able to work out a living arrangement that was beneficial to me, as well as my roommate.  But, many Fredericksburg City residents aren’t so lucky.  Taking college students out of the equation; there are still plenty of professionals living in the City finding it hard to make ends meet.  Roommates are a way of life here.       

2.  Does this ordinance actually do what it is supposed to do?  Can twelve people still live in a house, as long as they are related; and as long as they are quiet, not violate this ordinance?  Are four unrelated people living in a house noisier than 4 related people?  I grew up with 4 boys living in my home.  By the eyes of the law, we were considered related.  Being ”related” didn’t make them any less noisy or less likely to throw parties.  (And boy could my brothers throw a loud party!)  All of these boys were the same age, so we got 4 more cars in our driveway in 1 year.  Did that mean that their cars took up less room because my brothers were related?  I think our old neighbors would say “No,”  If it is a health risk that the City is concerned about or a possible noise violation they are trying to avoid, shouldn’t the City be concerned with the general occupancy of a dwelling, not the relationship of the occupants?  Or, could this approach cross into Fair Housing whelms? 

3.  How do landlords feel about this ordinance?  Do they feel that the City is infringing on their property rights?  If a property owner decides to rent their dwelling to 4 unrelated people with good credit, good jobs, and no criminal history, why does the city care?  Let’s say that these 4 unrelated occupants are police officers.  I would think that most neighbors would enjoy the benefits of having police officers living beside them.  What about teachers?  With budget cuts looming and school systems trying to get their seasoned teachers to retire so they can hire less expensive, less experienced teachers - these teachers need a place to live.  Last time I checked, new teachers do not get paid nearly enough to maintain a reasonable standard of living in this area.  Would the City take four teachers or four police officers to court for violating this ordinance?  (My guess is that they would have to, but would these professionals be better equipped than college students to fight the ordinance in court?)

Now, I am in no way supporting violating City ordinances and I am not promoting ignoring safety and health regulations.  But, I do question the City’s intent with this ordinance in the way it is written and how it has been presented to the community.  It does appear to target college students.  And for now, students are NOT protected under local Fair Housing laws.

September was actually a good month for closings in all counties that I service.  What was slower was the number of showings per listing and the number of houses going under contract.  I expect to see this reflected in the October sold statistics, since most contracts take 30 days to close. We have seen a new surge of buyers in the market the last two week with the passing of the Bailout Bill.  Loans are still out there and interest rates are still reasonable, but the mortgage market should get more challenging as we head into winter.  Here is a county break down of the market statistics for this area:

Fredericksburg City:

• 93 days on market – this 4 days less than in September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 95.92% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 15.73 months of inventory on the market
• 11 homes sold in September 2008 – this is 2 less than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$349,900
• The average sold price was $224,678, compared to $282,845 in September of 2007 (3 homes sold for less than $100,000 this September)

Orange County

• 174 days on market – this is 29 days more than in September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.24% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.4 months of inventory on the market
• 30 homes sold in September 2008 – this is 9 more than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $228,327, compared to $306,020 in September 2007

Spotsylvania County

• 123 days on market – this is two less than September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.5% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.86 months inventory on the market
• 161 homes sold in September 2008 – this is 64 more than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $248,780, compared to $318,857 in September 2007

Stafford County

• 116 days on market – this is 19 less than September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 90.48% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.95 months inventory on the market
• 149 homes sold in September 2008 – this is 63 more than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $274,365, compared to $397,342 in September 2007

Prince William County

• 107 days on market – this is 20 less than September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 91.34% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 4.81 months inventory on the market
• 934 homes sold in September 2008 – this is 629 more than in September 2007!
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $230,999, compared to $370,506 in September 2007

On average homes are sitting on the market less time in September 2008 than they did in September 2007.  We have faster absorption rates than last year and more homes are selling.  Sellers are selling their homes for amounts closer to their list price, but they are selling their homes for an average of $93,564.20 less than what they were selling for last year.  A great deal of this disparity can be attributed to the foreclosure and short sale markets.  The most popular price ranges are consistantly the first-time home buyer price ranges. 

What does this mean for you if you are a buyer?  You can still get a good deal, but the deal is that homes are priced far less than they were a year ago and way cheaper than they were 2 years ago.  As a buyer you can still expect to make offers close to list price, especially if you are asking the Seller to pay your closing costs.  Many banks are actually pricing properties below market value in hopes of getting multiple offers and starting bidding wars.  (By the way, this tactic is working). 

What does this mean if you are a seller?  It is a PRICE driven market.  I cannot say that enough!  PRICE DRIVEN!  You are competing with foreclosures.  You need to make your home stand out from the foreclosures any way you can.  You need to maintain your home and keep records of repairs.  You need to make your home modern and buyer friendly.  Spend the extra money to declutter and stage your home.  And most inportantly, price your home well!  It is an awful feeling to chase the market.  Stay on top of the market by pricing it right the first time.