Sarahiously Speaking

Fredericksburg City:

• 52 days on market – this is 144 days less than in March 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 86.51% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 11.36 months of inventory on the market
• 14 homes sold in March 2009 – this is 1 more than in March 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000 and under. 
• The average sold price was $235,850, compared to $265,100 in March 2008

Orange County

• 137 days on market – this is 30 days less than in March 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 82.15% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.56 months of inventory on the market
• 25 homes sold in March 2009 – this is 5 more than in March 2008
• The most popular price range was $140,000-159,999
• The average sold price was $169,908, compared to $255,868 in March 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 123 days on market – this is 8 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 86.55% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 6.85 months inventory on the market
• 151 homes sold in March 2009 – this is 22 more than in March 2008 
• The most popular price range was $140,000-$159,999
• The average sold price was $211,146, compared to $263,469 in March 2008 

Stafford County

• 111 days on market – this is 34 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 89.51% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 6.66 months inventory on the market
• 138 homes sold in March 2009 - this is 55 more than in March 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $230,573, compared to $318,644 in March 2008 

Prince William County

• 102 days on market – this is 32 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.43% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 4.11 months inventory on the market
• 750 homes sold in March 2009 - this is 248 more than in March 2008
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $210,060, compared to $299,586 in March 2008

The most common asked question in the last month has been, “So, when’s the market gonna turn around?” My answer is usually the same.  “The market will turn around when consumer confidence is up, employment numbers are up, the world’s confidence in the U.S.’s economy is up, when banks have either restructured or short sold the majority of their bad loans, when consumers stop thinking they can get something for nothing, and when we all finally take responsibility for each of our roles in the housing market collapse.  So, about 3-4 more years.” 

These are alot of variables that need to fall into place before we start to see a huge improvement in the housing market.  We are making strides toward stabalization in this area.  Many banks involved in the predatory lending market have now streamlined their short sale process; making it easier to either restructure a predatory loan product or sell the house at a loss.  The easier it is to sell a home and buy a home, the more confident a consumer will be to enter this market.  We are also seeing a decrease in the number of days homes are staying on the market.  I chalk this up to marketability and price.  If the house is in good condition and priced well, it won’t be on the market long.  Now, I’m not saying to price a home under market value, but to realize what market value is.  We are holding steady at the sales price to list price ratio, averaging in the mid-80% range.  And, the number of homes we are selling every month continues to rise across the board. 

The larger part of the equation is convincing consumers that not everyone deserves to own their own home.  I know!  This is blasphemy!  The American Dream is to be a homeowner.  But, nowhere in the American Dream does it say that everyone deserves to a homeowner, hence the dream.  I get calls every week from consumers who are still looking for a “great deal.”  They have caviar dreams, but a Happy Meal budget.  If there is one lesson we can learn from this market it is that we need to purchase homes for our needs, not our wants.  It is important that consumers are realistic about the market and what they can afford.  It is equally important for REALTORS to advise their clients on the market and help set realistic expectations within the limits of the client’s financial situation and current market availability. 

When’s the market gonna turn around?  When we finally learn from our mistakes and get back to old fashion values of working for the American Dream, not just taking it for granted.

Fredericksburg City:

• 156 days on market – this is 19 days less than in February 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 84.24% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 13.08 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 1 less than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $250,000-299,999 and $200,000. 
• The average sold price was $188,775, compared to $307,362 in February 2008

Orange County

• 195 days on market – this is 13 days more than in February 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 85.26% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.65 months of inventory on the market
• 23 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 5 less than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $197,291, compared to $280,107 in February 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 118 days on market – this is 46 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 87.27% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 10.23 months inventory on the market
• 105 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 25 more than in February 2008 
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $222,282, compared to $281,423 in February 2008 

Stafford County

• 120 days on market – this is 30 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 88.63% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.38 months inventory on the market
• 126 homes sold in February 2009 - this is 41 more than in February 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $223,321, compared to $342,113 in February 2008 

Prince William County

• 91 days on market – this is 34 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.97% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.22 months inventory on the market
• 614 homes sold in February 2009 - this is 227 more than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $204,378, compared to $307,392 in February 2008

Yep, it’s true, prices are continuing to fall.  Prices have fallen an average of $94,470 for the areas I mentioned above.  There are several reasons for the decrease in home sale prices.  First, there’s the whole mortgage/ housing collapse crisis this nation is experiencing.  As long as consumer confidence is down and the stock market is volatile, prices will continue to fall.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Second, there was a moratorium on foreclosures over the winter holiday.  This means less foreclosed homes came on the market and there was less inventory to choose from.  Many buyers opted to wait to purchase a home until inventory increases.  Or, they are waiting for the elusive 4.5% interest rates they were “promised.”  Less inventory and less buyers equals less competition and the buyers in the market made low offers because they could.  (However, if the house is in good condition, still expect competing offers, over list price).  The third reason prices keep dropping is it is the winter selling season.  We typically see a decrease in sales price this time of year because sellers get desperate and lower their prices.  These sellers fear the competition that will come on the market by the middle of April.  The added advantage for these sellers is that the buyers who are writing contracts during the winter months are serious about buying a home.  However, these buyers are also more likely to negotiate a contract in their favor. 

I’ve said it once, and I will continue to say it, the key to this market, if you are a seller is PRICE!  Price competitively the first time and you will have a much better chance of selling your home.  The key to this market if you are a buyer is good credit and patience!  If a buyer is in a popular price range, they should expect to be in a competing offer situation several times before they actually get a contract ratified. 

If you would like market statistics specific to your zip code or neighborhood, please feel free to email me.

Fredericksburg City:

• 197 days on market – this is 57 days more than in January 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 81.6% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 9.86 months of inventory on the market
• 14 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 2 more than in January 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000-149,999 and $200,000- 249,999 equally. 
• The average sold price was $225,459, compared to $338,775 in January 2008

Orange County

• 153 days on market – this is 37 days less than in January 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 79.15% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 32.08 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 4 less than in January 2008
• The most popular price range was $140,000-$159,999
• The average sold price was $218, 940, compared to $262,764 in January 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 135 days on market – this is 49 less than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 86.65% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 12.6 months inventory on the market
• 85 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 14 more than in January 2008 
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $237,421, compared to $294,604 in January 2008 

Stafford County

• 144 days on market – this is 14 more than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 85.62% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 10.24 months inventory on the market
• 91 homes sold in January 2009 - this is 34 more than in January 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $254,804, compared to $314,285 in January 2008 

Prince William County

• 103 days on market – this is 32 less than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.23% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.17 months inventory on the market
• 647 homes sold in January 2009 - this is 335 more than in January 2008!
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $210,255, compared to $318,859 in January 2008

January is typically a pretty slow month for several reasons.  First, consumers are still getting over the holiday spending spree.  Second, inventory is usually lower because most traditional sellers don’t want to market their homes during the holidays.  The weather also plays a factor in the productivity for the month.  But this January had three factors we haven’t seen in a while.  The election of President Barack Obama has helped fuel consumer confidence and the real estate market.  This confidence has flowed over to the lending industry and created lower interest rates and the availability of money to lend.  The third factor is one of supply and demand.  In November, at least two large lending institutions put a moratorium on foreclosures during the holidays.  This created a decrease in available homes for prospective purchasers and an increase in demand for homes in good condition that were available for quick delivery.  All of these factors created a perfect storm for a productive January market.

Now, there are always nuances to any real estate market.  Fredericksburg City is always a tough market to read.  Unless you consistently work or do real estate business in Fred City, the numbers look gloomy.  However, the inventory in the City has been very low recently and what is available may not meet the needs of today’s home buyer.  I am seeing more investment sales than owner occupied sales within the city limits.  The good news is that with slow down in the overall pace in Fred City, there are still only 9.86 months inventory on the market.  This is a much better number than what we have been looking at in recent months. 

Prince William County is consistently racking up huge numbers in all columns except price.  However, Prince William County has an abnormally high rate of foreclosures and short sales.  Yes, this is most likely due to abnormally high incidences of predatory lending in that county.  But don’t let the numbers fool you.  Prince William County real estate is extremely competitive.  There may be an abundance of listings, but not all of them are move-in ready.  Buyers looking in Prince William need to be ready to compete with multiple offers and think about making offers higher than list price.  You also better be ready to move fast if you like a house.  The good ones go quickly.