Interpreting April 2009 Market Statistics
My initial thoughts when seeing the April report was that we were seeing February prices finally closing in April and that I would see quite a few short sales and foreclosures on the list.
In April we had 15 homes sell in Fredericksburg City (22401). Of these, 4 were short sales and 5 were foreclosures. 4 of these contracts were written in February or earlier. 4 settlements were also for cash.
Stafford County sold 128 homes in April. 18 homes were short sales and 66 homes were foreclosures. That means that 44 homes were most advertised as traditional seller sales. Believe it or not, that’s not too shabby. 42 contracts that settled were written in February or earlier. 14 closings were cash offers.
Spotsylvania County sold 156 homes in April. 19 homes were short sales and 95 were foreclosures. The lower price range dominated these alternative markets. 42 homes were listed as traditional seller sales. 57 contracts were written in February or earlier. A few contracts dated as far back as early December. 20 closings were for cash.
What does all this mean? It looks as though short sales are getting to the settlement table in a timely manner. There could be several explanations for this. For one, many banks have streamlined their short sale approval process. Secondly, more agents are better trained at handling short sales successfully. Even though many banks have streamlined their short sale process, we still have a ways to go to make it a truly effective alternative to foreclosure. Many associations in areas hard hit by predatory lending are offering numerous opportunities for agents to be trained on the ins and outs of short sales. Some agents are now being recognized as being experts in this niche market. However, sellers are not required to disclose their short sale status until they are in substantive conversations with a buyer. This means that not all short sales are disclosed in MLS. So, although the majority of our transactions were foreclosures and short sales, I think there were a few more than what shows up on the report.
I do think that the sales prices were accurate, but you have to look at it in context. It is taking longer to get to the closing table than it used to. We are seeing January and February prices closing in April. We are also seeing investors jumping back into the market. They are being lured by low prices and a hot and heavy rental market. Many of these investors are able to pay cash which can help a buyer get a house much cheaper than list price. From experience though, I can honestly say that there has not been alot to choose from in the most popular price ranges, predominately $250,000-$350,000. There are many more buyers in today’s market than good housing options. We are seeing more and more escalation clauses and sellers digging their heels in and holding out for a better offer. I believe we are getting to a point where it is inevitable that the scales start to tip in the other direction. It’s still a long way to recovery, but with low interest rates, the $8000 buyer tax credit, investors jumping back into the marketplace, and buyer confidence on an increase, we just may turn this ship around. (But still give it another 4 years).
