Sarahiously Speaking

Fredericksburg City:

• 124 days on market – this is 3 days more than in May 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 76.75% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 14.92 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in May 2009 – this is 2 less than in May 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000 and under.  All houses that sold were priced under $250,000. 
• The median sold price was $103,500,000, compared to $275,000 in May 2008
• 5 homes purchased with cash, 4 were FHA, 2 were conventional financing, and 1 was “other” financing

Orange County

• 154 days on market – this is 22 days less than in May 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 81.16% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 22.25 months of inventory on the market
• 20 homes sold in May 2009 – this is 5 less than in May 2008
• The most popular price ranges were $100,000-119,999, $160,000-$179,999, and $200,000-$249,999 
• The median sold price was $164,950, compared to $235,000 in May 2008 
• 2 homes were purchased with cash, 10 with FHA, 5 were conventional financing, 1 was VA, and 2 loans were assumed 

Spotsylvania County

• 98 days on market – this is 29 less than May 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 89.64% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.43 months inventory on the market
• 174 homes sold in May 2009 – this is 54 more than in May 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The median sold price was $202,500, compared to $248,500 in April 2008 
• 27 homes purchased with cash, 58 were FHA, 44 were conventional financing, 29 were VA, and 2 were “other” financing

Stafford County

• 103 days on market – this is 26 less than May 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 91.51% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 4.96 months inventory on the market
• 171 homes sold in May 2009 - this is 22 more than in May 2008 
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The median sold price was $245,000, compared to $281,100 in May 2008 
• 13 homes purchased with cash, 44 were FHA, 37 were conventional financing, 68 were VA, 8 loans were assumed, and 1 had “other” financing

Prince William County

• 78 days on market – this is 50 less than May 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 93.34% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 3.71 months inventory on the market
• 753 homes sold in May 2009 - this is 29 less more than in May 2008
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The median sold price was $207,777, compared to $256,124 in May 2008
• 114 homes purchased with cash, 310 were FHA, 161 were conventional financing, 131 were VA, 33 loans were assumed, and 4 were purchased using “other” financing

Statistics provided and calculated using data supplied by MRIS.

My initial thoughts when seeing the April report was that we were seeing February prices finally closing in April and that I would see quite a few short sales and foreclosures on the list. 

In April we had 15 homes sell in Fredericksburg City (22401).  Of these, 4 were short sales and 5 were foreclosures.  4 of these contracts were written in February or earlier.  4 settlements were also for cash.

Stafford County sold 128 homes in April.  18 homes were short sales and 66 homes were foreclosures.  That means that 44 homes were most advertised as traditional seller sales.  Believe it or not, that’s not too shabby.  42 contracts that settled were written in February or earlier.  14 closings were cash offers.

Spotsylvania County sold 156 homes in April.  19 homes were short sales and 95 were foreclosures.  The lower price range dominated these alternative markets.  42 homes were listed as traditional seller sales.  57 contracts were written in February or earlier.  A few contracts dated as far back as early December.  20 closings were for cash.   

What does all this mean?  It looks as though short sales are getting to the settlement table in a timely manner.  There could be several explanations for this.  For one, many banks have streamlined their short sale approval process.  Secondly, more agents are better trained at handling short sales successfully.  Even though many banks have streamlined their short sale process, we still have a ways to go to make it a truly effective alternative to foreclosure.  Many associations in areas hard hit by predatory lending are offering numerous opportunities for agents to be trained on the ins and outs of short sales.  Some agents are now being recognized as being experts in this niche market.  However, sellers are not required to disclose their short sale status until they are in substantive conversations with a buyer.  This means that not all short sales are disclosed in MLS. So, although the majority of our transactions were foreclosures and short sales, I think there were a few more than what shows up on the report.

I do think that the sales prices were accurate, but you have to look at it in context.  It is taking longer to get to the closing table than it used to.  We are seeing January and February prices closing in April.  We are also seeing investors jumping back into the market.  They are being lured by low prices and a hot and heavy rental market.  Many of these investors are able to pay cash which can help a buyer get a house much cheaper than list price.  From experience though, I can honestly say that there has not been alot to choose from in the most popular price ranges, predominately $250,000-$350,000.  There are many more buyers in today’s market than good housing options.  We are seeing more and more escalation clauses and sellers digging their heels in and holding out for a better offer.  I believe we are getting to a point where it is inevitable that the scales start to tip in the other direction.  It’s still a long way to recovery, but with low interest rates, the $8000 buyer tax credit, investors jumping back into the marketplace, and buyer confidence on an increase, we just may turn this ship around.  (But still give it another 4 years).

Fredericksburg City:

• 95 days on market – this is 85 days less than in April 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 90.50% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 12.85 months of inventory on the market
• 13 homes sold in April 2009 – this is 1 more than in April 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000 and under and $200,000-$249,999 
• The median sold price was $210,000, compared to $277,500 in April 2008
• 4 homes purchased with cash 

Orange County

• 244 days on market – this is 106 days more than in April 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 83.20% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 22.32 months of inventory on the market
• 19 homes sold in April 2009 – this is 9 less than in April 2008
• The most popular price range was $180,000-199,999
• The median sold price was $195,000, compared to $240,500 in April 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 91 days on market – this is 34 less than April 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 85.19% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 6.33 months inventory on the market
• 155 homes sold in April 2009 – this is 28 more than in April 2008 
• The most popular price range was $140,000-$159,999
• The average sold price was $174,900, compared to $237,000 in April 2008 
• 20 homes purchased with cash 

Stafford County

• 113 days on market – this is 46 less than March 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 89.57% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 6.91 months inventory on the market
• 129 homes sold in March 2009 - this is 1 less than in April 2008 
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $219,900, compared to $294,950 in April 2008 
• 14 homes purchased with cash 

Prince William County

• 87 days on market – this is 45 less than April 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 92.8% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 3.97 months inventory on the market
• 741 homes sold in April 2009 - this is 102 more than in April 2008
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $175,000, compared to $262,000 in April 2008
• 163 homes purchased with cash 

Statistics provided and calculated using data supplied by MRIS.

Fredericksburg City:

• 156 days on market – this is 19 days less than in February 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 84.24% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 13.08 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 1 less than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $250,000-299,999 and $200,000. 
• The average sold price was $188,775, compared to $307,362 in February 2008

Orange County

• 195 days on market – this is 13 days more than in February 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 85.26% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.65 months of inventory on the market
• 23 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 5 less than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $197,291, compared to $280,107 in February 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 118 days on market – this is 46 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 87.27% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 10.23 months inventory on the market
• 105 homes sold in February 2009 – this is 25 more than in February 2008 
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $222,282, compared to $281,423 in February 2008 

Stafford County

• 120 days on market – this is 30 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 88.63% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.38 months inventory on the market
• 126 homes sold in February 2009 - this is 41 more than in February 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $223,321, compared to $342,113 in February 2008 

Prince William County

• 91 days on market – this is 34 less than February 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.97% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.22 months inventory on the market
• 614 homes sold in February 2009 - this is 227 more than in February 2008
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $204,378, compared to $307,392 in February 2008

Yep, it’s true, prices are continuing to fall.  Prices have fallen an average of $94,470 for the areas I mentioned above.  There are several reasons for the decrease in home sale prices.  First, there’s the whole mortgage/ housing collapse crisis this nation is experiencing.  As long as consumer confidence is down and the stock market is volatile, prices will continue to fall.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Second, there was a moratorium on foreclosures over the winter holiday.  This means less foreclosed homes came on the market and there was less inventory to choose from.  Many buyers opted to wait to purchase a home until inventory increases.  Or, they are waiting for the elusive 4.5% interest rates they were “promised.”  Less inventory and less buyers equals less competition and the buyers in the market made low offers because they could.  (However, if the house is in good condition, still expect competing offers, over list price).  The third reason prices keep dropping is it is the winter selling season.  We typically see a decrease in sales price this time of year because sellers get desperate and lower their prices.  These sellers fear the competition that will come on the market by the middle of April.  The added advantage for these sellers is that the buyers who are writing contracts during the winter months are serious about buying a home.  However, these buyers are also more likely to negotiate a contract in their favor. 

I’ve said it once, and I will continue to say it, the key to this market, if you are a seller is PRICE!  Price competitively the first time and you will have a much better chance of selling your home.  The key to this market if you are a buyer is good credit and patience!  If a buyer is in a popular price range, they should expect to be in a competing offer situation several times before they actually get a contract ratified. 

If you would like market statistics specific to your zip code or neighborhood, please feel free to email me.

Fredericksburg City:

• 197 days on market – this is 57 days more than in January 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 81.6% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 9.86 months of inventory on the market
• 14 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 2 more than in January 2008
• The most popular price range was $100,000-149,999 and $200,000- 249,999 equally. 
• The average sold price was $225,459, compared to $338,775 in January 2008

Orange County

• 153 days on market – this is 37 days less than in January 2008
• Sellers received, on average, 79.15% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 32.08 months of inventory on the market
• 12 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 4 less than in January 2008
• The most popular price range was $140,000-$159,999
• The average sold price was $218, 940, compared to $262,764 in January 2008 

Spotsylvania County

• 135 days on market – this is 49 less than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 86.65% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 12.6 months inventory on the market
• 85 homes sold in January 2009 – this is 14 more than in January 2008 
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $237,421, compared to $294,604 in January 2008 

Stafford County

• 144 days on market – this is 14 more than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 85.62% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 10.24 months inventory on the market
• 91 homes sold in January 2009 - this is 34 more than in January 2008 
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $254,804, compared to $314,285 in January 2008 

Prince William County

• 103 days on market – this is 32 less than January 2008 
• Sellers received, on average, 90.23% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.17 months inventory on the market
• 647 homes sold in January 2009 - this is 335 more than in January 2008!
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $210,255, compared to $318,859 in January 2008

January is typically a pretty slow month for several reasons.  First, consumers are still getting over the holiday spending spree.  Second, inventory is usually lower because most traditional sellers don’t want to market their homes during the holidays.  The weather also plays a factor in the productivity for the month.  But this January had three factors we haven’t seen in a while.  The election of President Barack Obama has helped fuel consumer confidence and the real estate market.  This confidence has flowed over to the lending industry and created lower interest rates and the availability of money to lend.  The third factor is one of supply and demand.  In November, at least two large lending institutions put a moratorium on foreclosures during the holidays.  This created a decrease in available homes for prospective purchasers and an increase in demand for homes in good condition that were available for quick delivery.  All of these factors created a perfect storm for a productive January market.

Now, there are always nuances to any real estate market.  Fredericksburg City is always a tough market to read.  Unless you consistently work or do real estate business in Fred City, the numbers look gloomy.  However, the inventory in the City has been very low recently and what is available may not meet the needs of today’s home buyer.  I am seeing more investment sales than owner occupied sales within the city limits.  The good news is that with slow down in the overall pace in Fred City, there are still only 9.86 months inventory on the market.  This is a much better number than what we have been looking at in recent months. 

Prince William County is consistently racking up huge numbers in all columns except price.  However, Prince William County has an abnormally high rate of foreclosures and short sales.  Yes, this is most likely due to abnormally high incidences of predatory lending in that county.  But don’t let the numbers fool you.  Prince William County real estate is extremely competitive.  There may be an abundance of listings, but not all of them are move-in ready.  Buyers looking in Prince William need to be ready to compete with multiple offers and think about making offers higher than list price.  You also better be ready to move fast if you like a house.  The good ones go quickly.

Fredericksburg City -

• 108 days on market – this is 25 less days than in August 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 92.54% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 13.36 months inventory on the market
• 14 homes sold in August 2008, this is 7 more than in August 2007
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sales price was $263,298, compared to $352,273 in August 2007

Orange County

• 158 days on market – this is 54 days less than in August 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 87.44% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 16.87 months inventory on the market
• 31 homes sold in August 2008, this is 7 more than in August 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sales price was $219,950, compared to $338,129 in August 2007

Spotsylvania County

• 117 days on market- this is 27 days less than in August 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.4% of their list price when the home sold 
• There are 8.31 months inventory on the market
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sales price was $262,389, compared to $314,311 in August 2007

Stafford County

• 107 days on market – this is 9 days less than in August 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.89% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 8.5 months inventory on the market
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sales price was $287,918, compared to $367,920 in August 2007

Prince William County

• 111 days on market – this is 13 less than in August 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 90.4% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 5.77 months inventory on the market
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sales price was $251,384, compared to $395,233 in August 2007

Fredericksburg City -

·  171 days on market – this is 95 days more than in July 2007

·  Sellers received, on average, 90.91% of their list price when the home sold

·  There are 7.73 months inventory on the market

·  22 homes sold in August 2008, this is 5 less than in July 2007

·  The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999

·  The average sales price was $360,436, compared to $300,025 in July 2007

Orange County

• 165 days on market – this is 33 days more than in July 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 85.27% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 21.04 months inventory on the market
• 26 homes sold in August 2008, this is 12 less than in August 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sales price was $237,462, compared to $302,788 in July 2007

Spotsylvania County

• 143 days on market- this is 32 days less than in July 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 88.51% of their list price when the home sold 
• There are 10.13 months inventory on the market
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sales price was $272,725, compared to $336,537 in July 2007

Stafford County

• 107 days on market – this is 9 days less than in July 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.89% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 8.52 months inventory on the market
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sales price was $287,918, compared to $367,920 in July 2007

Prince William County

• 112 days on market – this is 3 more than in July 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 90.30% of their list price when the home sold
• There are 6.02 months inventory on the market
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sales price was $255,185, compared to $407,363 in July 2007